Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:19:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7774…6ba4 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$248 (-12%) realized −$262 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$584now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$120
14 days−$205
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$50
world 10% −$38
crypto 10% −$19
tech 8% +$7
finance 7% +$33
sports 4% −$71
politics 3% −$72
economics 3% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -4.0% -13.2% 54% 54% -26.4%
≤30d 16 -22.0% -29.5% 44% 44% -35.0%
≤90d 16 -22.0% -29.5% 44% 44% -35.0%
all 30 -13.0% -21.3% 40% 33% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 33% -24.1%
10% -28.8% 33% -31.4%
15% -35.7% 30% -38.0%
20% -42.0% 23% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$29 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$584
Realized−$262
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)30 / 37
History coverage191d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $300 $307 +$7 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 50¢ 42¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$13 +52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$11 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$9 +38%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $122 +$34 +28%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $78 +$41 +52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 20 $20 $0 -1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $76 −$75 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$15 +60%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 25 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 25 $67 +$5 +8%
Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? Jan 19 $69 −$29 -41%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jan 19 $191 −$19 -10%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 15 $64 −$43 -67%
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 14 $65 $0 -1%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 14 $62 +$2 +4%
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31? Jan 06 $80 −$3 -4%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $88 +$71 +81%
S&P 500 all time high by December 31? Dec 24 $51 +$37 +74%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Dec 21 $13 $0 -2%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Dec 19 $1 $0 -15%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 17? Dec 19 $10 +$3 +37%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 15? Dec 17 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 1h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 70¢ $202 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 2h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 76¢ $101 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 12h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 50¢ $20 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 74¢ $51 4d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 4d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 42¢ $86 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 29¢ $20 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $78 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 6d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $100 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 8d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $583.83 · official $583.83 (match) · 72 history records