Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:23:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
77 0x7774…ca1c other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 493d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$679 (+18%) realized +$736 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$546per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$443now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$580
7 days+$580
14 days+$580
30 days+$580
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$1,614
sports 26% −$1,000
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +5.4% -4.7% 67% 67% +32.0%
≤30d 3 +5.4% -4.7% 67% 67% +32.0%
≤90d 3 +5.4% -4.7% 67% 67% +32.0%
all 5 +4.0% -5.9% 60% 60% +8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 60% +8.8%
10% -14.9% 60% -1.6%
15% -23.1% 60% -11.1%
20% -30.7% 60% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$574 vs −$525 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

493d coverage
Net worth$443
Realized+$736
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage493d
Avg bet$546
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $250 $247 −$3 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 60¢ $250 $196 −$54 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,162 +$597 +51%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford Sep 14 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Super Bowl LIX Winner Feb 10 $1,050 +$1,091 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $254 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $252 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,010 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 47h
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford BUY Canelo 62¢ $1,000 276d
Super Bowl LIX Winner SELL Eagles 100¢ $2,141 492d
Super Bowl LIX Winner BUY Eagles 49¢ $500 492d
Super Bowl LIX Winner BUY Eagles 49¢ $550 493d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $443.45 · official $443.45 (match) · 12 history records