Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:59:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7773…e779 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$84 (-17%) realized −$83 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$85
crypto 37% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-42.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -36.3% -42.3% 36% 36% -33.7%
≤30d 11 -36.3% -42.3% 36% 36% -33.7%
≤90d 11 -36.3% -42.3% 36% 36% -33.7%
all 11 -36.3% -42.3% 36% 36% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.3% 36% -33.7%
10% -47.8% 27% -40.0%
15% -52.9% 27% -45.8%
20% -57.5% 18% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$26 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$83
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 26 $52 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $52 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 26 $24 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$18 +58%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$27 +90%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $100 27h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 83¢ $50 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 85¢ $25 36h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 36h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 72¢ $50 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.87 · official $98.87 (match) · 21 history records