Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:52:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
77 0x7770…92ba other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$191 (-3%) realized −$180 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$885per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$1,589now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$184
7 days−$184
14 days−$184
30 days−$419
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$399
sports 34% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 25% -16.1%
≤30d 6 +6.2% -4.0% 33% 33% -21.6%
≤90d 6 +6.2% -4.0% 33% 33% -21.6%
all 6 +6.2% -4.0% 33% 33% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 33% -21.6%
10% -13.1% 33% -29.1%
15% -21.5% 33% -36.0%
20% -29.2% 33% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$141 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$1,589
Realized−$180
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage17d
Avg bet$885
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $1,600 $1,589 −$11 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $1,968 −$27 -1%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $151 −$4 -3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $345 −$192 -56%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $66 +$40 +61%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $501 −$342 -68%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$106 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,613 7m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 71¢ $293 9m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $303 14m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 94¢ $1,645 29m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $993 31m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $675 44m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 73¢ $391 53m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 94¢ $296 53m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $300 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $403 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 73¢ $727 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $494 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $147 2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $147 2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $151 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 25¢ $152 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $46 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $253 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $46 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 92¢ $105 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $160 14d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $501 14d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $208 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,588.90 · official $1,588.90 (match) · 30 history records