Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:48:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x776f…b47a other 49 markets active 12h ago coverage 609d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate15%7W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$324per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 86% −$14
politics 7% −$5
other 6% −$12
sports 1% −$36
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 +4.8% -5.2% 20% 7% -5.6%
≤90d 33 -3.9% -13.1% 12% 3% -13.5%
all 47 -2.9% -12.1% 15% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 2% -9.9%
10% -20.6% 2% -18.5%
15% -28.2% 2% -26.4%
20% -35.3% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

609d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses7 / 40
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage609d
Avg bet$324
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $9 +$6 +73%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $85 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $98 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $49 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $45 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $51 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 27 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 21 $96 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $49 $0 -0%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 09 $14 $0 +1%
Capitals vs. Sabres Mar 27 $42 −$42 -100%
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Feb 09 $52 +$2 +3%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 20 $13,516 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $1 $0 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $42 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 02 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $9 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $197 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $395 −$1 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 28 $221 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $187 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $5 12h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $15 5d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 10d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 11d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 21d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $11 27d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 28d
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $9 28d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 28d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 28d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $39 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.42 · official $19.42 (match) · 225 history records