Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:35:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x776f…32b7 crypto 220 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$481 (-5%) realized −$481 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%136W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day37.9pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$436
7 days−$432
14 days−$763
30 days−$763
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$330
sports 41% −$11
other 14% −$309
world 2% −$116
finance 1% +$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -14.0% -22.2% 60% 42% -24.5%
≤30d 219 -1.4% -10.8% 62% 38% -16.5%
≤90d 219 -1.4% -10.8% 62% 38% -16.5%
all 219 -1.4% -10.8% 62% 38% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 38% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 26% -24.5%
15% -27.1% 16% -31.8%
20% -34.2% 10% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$33 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$481
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses136 / 83
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions1
Markets (closed)219 / 220
History coverage13d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day37.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $120 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $108 −$108 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $85 +$25 +29%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $69 +$18 +26%
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 17 $41 +$29 +72%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $40 +$14 +36%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $30 +$11 +36%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) Jun 17 $213 −$213 -100%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $26 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $64 −$46 -73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$6 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $228 +$90 +39%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $179 +$52 +29%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $62 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $67 +$20 +31%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $26 −$9 -35%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $26 −$5 -21%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$17 -65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +10%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $87 −$70 -81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +10%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Will France Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $116 +$50 +43%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $111 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $62 +$41 +67%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $49 +$25 +52%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +10%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $75 +$16 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +10%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $87 −$46 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +11%
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Fucsovics (+1.5) Jun 16 $48 +$70 +145%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $123 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $108 3h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL San Diego Padres 75¢ $110 3h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 57¢ $85 4h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 71¢ $87 4h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 55¢ $69 4h
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) SELL New York Mets 94¢ $0 5h
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) SELL New York Mets 94¢ $38 5h
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) SELL New York Mets 94¢ $32 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 30¢ $107 5h
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) BUY New York Mets 54¢ $41 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 5h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 60¢ $55 8h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery SELL Arthur Fery 100¢ $55 8h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 73¢ $40 9h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 100¢ $41 9h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 73¢ $30 12h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $23 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $7 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $7 12h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) BUY Fritz 53¢ $213 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $17 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $64 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $6 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.19 · official $124.20 · 584 history records