Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:08:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x776f…f672 sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$32 (-3%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$100
14 days−$119
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$80
other 22% −$71
economics 7% −$67
world 2% −$20
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -27.3% -34.3% 31% 31% -26.7%
≤30d 43 -31.8% -38.3% 28% 28% -28.3%
≤90d 43 -31.8% -38.3% 28% 28% -28.3%
all 46 -32.8% -39.2% 28% 28% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.2% 28% -17.3%
10% -45.0% 28% -25.3%
15% -50.3% 26% -32.5%
20% -55.2% 22% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$11 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 33
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage223d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $30 −$4 -12%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $65 −$35 -54%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 +$4 +38%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 -5%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $72 −$6 -9%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $42 +$30 +72%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $46 +$26 +57%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $28 +$10 +34%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $90 −$62 -69%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +78%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +250%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -53%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +104%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -55%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$1 -14%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 14 $67 −$67 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $269 +$162 +60%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 53m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 66¢ $26 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $30 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 33¢ $30 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $65 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 SELL Over 48¢ $5 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 5h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $66 5h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $72 6h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $72 6h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $42 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 28h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 44¢ $14 29h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 29h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 29h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 30h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 30h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 21¢ $58 30h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $38 31h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 32h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $28 32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 17¢ $28 32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $90 38h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.05 · official $5.05 (match) · 77 history records