Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:58:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x776e…32ca crypto 374 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$121 (+7%) realized +$122 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate79%293W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$8
14 days+$16
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$3
other 6% +$16
sports 4% +$39
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 317 -1.8% -11.2% 77% 58% -10.0%
≤30d 372 -0.5% -10.0% 78% 57% -9.7%
≤90d 373 -0.2% -9.7% 79% 57% -6.6%
all 373 -0.2% -9.7% 79% 57% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 57% -6.6%
10% -18.3% 34% -15.6%
15% -26.2% 16% -23.7%
20% -33.5% 7% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$122
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses293 / 80
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)373 / 374
History coverage36d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 373 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 79¢ 31¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $22 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$20 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $100 +$13 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$5 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $100 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$24 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$16 -78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +7%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $7 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$8 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $15 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$6 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11AM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +24%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $7 +$2 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $55 +$15 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$2 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $4 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $9 +$2 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $4 +$1 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $20 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.77 · official $0.77 (match) · 809 history records