Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:14:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x776e…411c crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5,550 (-76%) realized −$5,550 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%5W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$331per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$181
7 days−$11
14 days−$4,742
30 days−$5,642
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$4,009
crypto 35% −$1,770
sports 8% +$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-50.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -45.0% -50.3% 33% 33% -10.8%
≤30d 22 -45.4% -50.6% 23% 23% -77.0%
≤90d 22 -45.4% -50.6% 23% 23% -77.0%
all 22 -45.4% -50.6% 23% 23% -77.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.6% 23% -77.0%
10% -55.3% 23% -79.2%
15% -59.6% 23% -81.2%
20% -63.6% 18% -83.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -139% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -139% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -85% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$353 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,550
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses5 / 17
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage20d
Avg bet$331
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $497 +$182 +37%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $95 −$92 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $49 +$46 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $47 −$46 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 +$56 +365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$41 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$9 +140%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4,061 −$3,962 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$68 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $87 −$84 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $203 −$195 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $358 −$150 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $141 −$135 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $262 −$36 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $182 −$172 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 04 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 04 $517 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 04 $208 −$200 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $679 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $403 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $94 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $43 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $49 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 11¢ $47 3d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $15 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $42 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $6 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 1¢ $46 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 50¢ $997 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $139 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $31 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $170 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $495 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $102 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $87 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $405 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $203 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $157 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $284 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2,025 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $201 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $141 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $386 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $38 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records