Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:09:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x776d…83e2 crypto 66 markets active 7d ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate94%62W / 4L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$3
other 42% +$1
tech 4% $0
world 4% −$1
economics 3% $0
sports 0% +$4
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 16 -6.1% -15.1% 94% 0% -9.5%
all 66 -3.9% -13.1% 94% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 2% -9.5%
10% -21.4% 2% -18.1%
15% -29.0% 2% -26.1%
20% -36.0% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses62 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage230d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $89 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 27 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? May 15 $89 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 10 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? May 06 $89 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? May 06 $88 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 28 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 20? Apr 23 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 10? Apr 19 $88 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 10 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 29? Apr 03 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 28? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on March 24? Mar 28 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 16? Mar 23 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 16? Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 8? Mar 14 $90 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Mar 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 08 $89 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 8 Feb 28 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 8? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 31? Feb 06 $92 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? Jan 30 $91 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 20 $91 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 27°F or below on Dece Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Brown University shooter be arrested on December 30? Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 28? Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be at least $500b on December 31? Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 before 2026? Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28? Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $440b on December 31? Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $470b and $480b on December 31? Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Jan 13 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $89 6d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $89 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $89 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $89 32d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $89 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $89 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $89 42d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $88 50d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $88 54d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $88 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $88 67d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $88 74d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $88 80d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 28? BUY No 0¢ $1 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $89 86d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $89 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 16? BUY No 0¢ $1 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 8? BUY No 100¢ $90 100d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $89 108d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 8 BUY No 100¢ $90 129d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 129d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 31? BUY No 100¢ $92 138d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $91 147d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $91 154d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 BUY No 100¢ $58 169d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 169d
Will Solana dip to $70 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 169d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1 169d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 27°F or below on Dece BUY No 100¢ $1 169d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records