Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:34:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x7768…859e other 17 markets active 12h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+4%) realized +$11 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$9
crypto 14% −$20
economics 9% $0
sports 5% +$31
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +24.3% +12.5% 57% 57% -7.9%
≤30d 7 +24.3% +12.5% 57% 57% -7.9%
≤90d 7 +24.3% +12.5% 57% 57% -7.9%
all 14 +9.8% -0.7% 57% 50% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 50% -7.3%
10% -10.2% 36% -16.2%
15% -18.9% 29% -24.3%
20% -26.8% 21% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage151d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-4%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $42 +$18 +42%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$31 +292%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$9 +82%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +53%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on January 27? Jan 27 $1 $0 -15%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on January 27? Jan 27 $2 $0 +21%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jan 26 $2 $0 -3%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jan 26 $2 $0 +22%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -85%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Jan 26 $5 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $21 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $16 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 34h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $21 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $21 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on January 27? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 140d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on January 27? SELL Yes 80¢ $3 140d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on January 27? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 140d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on January 27? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 140d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 69¢ $2 141d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 141d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 141d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 141d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? SELL No 99¢ $6 141d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 95¢ $9 151d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? BUY No 71¢ $2 151d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 151d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? BUY No 81¢ $5 151d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 151d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.43 · official $47.43 (match) · 35 history records