Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x7767…4fb2 sports 325 markets active 0h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,261 (+0%) realized +$1,892 · open −$631
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%181W / 143L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,082per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$4,484est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$3,941now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,836
7 days+$348
14 days+$11,532
30 days+$19,261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$3,709
other 5% −$490
world 1% +$5,159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -11.6% -20.0% 50% 50% -8.6%
≤30d 110 +16.4% +5.3% 61% 60% +0.3%
≤90d 262 +5.9% -4.2% 57% 56% -6.4%
all 324 +2.3% -7.5% 56% 55% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 55% -8.9%
10% -16.3% 54% -17.6%
15% -24.4% 50% -25.6%
20% -31.8% 40% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$1,213) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$700 vs −$875 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$3,941
Realized+$1,892
Unrealized−$631
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses181 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$4,484
Open positions1
Markets (closed)324 / 325
History coverage121d
Avg bet$1,082
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 324 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Felix Auger-Aliassime 61¢ 53¢ $4,572 $3,941 −$631 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 128 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $3,092 +$1,529 +49%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,778 −$4,685 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $4,778 −$4,730 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7,530 +$3,587 +48%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $9,060 +$2,744 +30%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $5,833 −$3,484 -60%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4,809 +$5,159 +107%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,301 −$2,274 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $4,799 +$4,292 +89%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,865 +$2,698 +70%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,316 +$2,848 +86%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,299 +$1,542 +119%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $393 −$386 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,205 −$2,180 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2,306 −$2,253 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3,841 −$3,783 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,209 −$2,171 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3,103 +$2,667 +86%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3,809 +$2,057 +54%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $4,836 +$2,685 +56%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $2,459 +$2,371 +96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,521 +$943 +62%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $982 −$961 -98%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 11 $1,746 −$758 -43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $946 +$800 +84%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $721 −$706 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,912 −$1,881 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2,776 −$2,730 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,755 +$1,017 +58%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $7,021 −$3,608 -51%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $3,380 +$4,237 +125%
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 09 $328 +$166 +51%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $188 +$140 +74%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $2,729 −$2,676 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $1,551 −$1,526 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $969 +$585 +60%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $349 +$620 +178%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $1,687 −$1,664 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,139 −$1,125 -99%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,908 −$1,874 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,967 +$1,245 +63%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $2,447 +$1,748 +71%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1,182 +$1,268 +107%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $720 +$464 +64%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $347 +$484 +139%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $2,182 −$2,132 -98%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 07 $1,773 −$1,756 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,032 +$741 +72%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,032 +$980 +95%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,350 +$1,183 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 61¢ $8 0m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 61¢ $4,616 0m
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 100¢ $4,621 2m
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 67¢ $2,937 11m
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 54¢ $155 11m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Learner Tien 32¢ $3,096 11m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 35¢ $14 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 38¢ $3,802 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Learner Tien 37¢ $559 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 43¢ $677 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 34¢ $19 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 34¢ $4,759 11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 65¢ $9 14h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 66¢ $4,770 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $11,117 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $7,517 21h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $7,529 21h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 56¢ $10 22h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 56¢ $4,264 22h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 44¢ $4,275 22h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 48¢ $12 23h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 48¢ $4,773 23h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 53¢ $7 26h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 55¢ $2,868 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $9,967 36h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $15 39h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $4,790 39h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $4 39h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $2,301 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,941.01 · official $4,349.99 · 660 history records