Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:42:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
77 0x7765…ccb8 world 7 markets active 5h ago coverage 93d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$46,484 (+55%) realized +$43,986 · open +$2,498
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +98% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +56% what you keep after slip
Net edge+56%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$12,130per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$66,801now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 93d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$2,118
politics 20% +$47,217
world 4% +$1,442
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+79.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +49.1% +34.9% 100% 100% +34.9%
≤30d 2 +175.9% +149.6% 100% 100% +233.4%
≤90d 4 +98.3% +79.4% 100% 100% +221.7%
all 4 +98.3% +79.4% 100% 100% +221.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +79.4% 100% +221.7%
10% ← realistic here +62.3% 75% +190.9%
15% +46.6% 50% +162.8%
20% +32.2% 25% +137.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +256% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +98% · $-wt +256% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
56.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12,070 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$66,801
Realized+$43,986
Unrealized+$2,498
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage93d
Avg bet$12,130
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $62,579 $64,689 +$2,110 (+3%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 52¢ $1,680 $2,060 +$380 (+23%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 90¢ $44 $52 +$8 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 13 $2,409 +$1,183 +49%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $15,473 +$46,837 +303%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 18 $1 $0 +16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 18 $1,005 +$258 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $17 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $22 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3,579 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $1,319 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $2 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $2 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $10 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $2,260 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $160 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $31,971 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11,191 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $8,707 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $8,626 6d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 42¢ $1,719 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 86¢ $62,310 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 61¢ $352 11d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 72¢ $451 22d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 72¢ $464 22d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 60d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $1,263 60d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 65d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 44¢ $33 65d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 46¢ $22 65d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 46¢ $80 65d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 46¢ $23 65d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 46¢ $28 65d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 46¢ $28 65d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 46¢ $46 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66,801.26 · official $70,281.73 · 429 history records