Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:24:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
77 0x7763…1f14 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$75 (+29%) realized +$32 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +93% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +74% what you keep after slip
Net edge+74%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$64
other 40% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+74.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +92.6% +74.3% 50% 50% +37.8%
≤30d 10 +92.6% +74.3% 50% 50% +37.8%
≤90d 10 +92.6% +74.3% 50% 50% +37.8%
all 10 +92.6% +74.3% 50% 50% +37.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +74.3% 50% +37.8%
10% +57.6% 50% +24.6%
15% +42.4% 50% +12.6%
20% +28.4% 50% +1.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +93% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$9 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.66 per $1 lost it wins $2.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)10 / 16
History coverage6d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 44¢ 84¢ $30 $57 +$27 (+91%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 68¢ 96¢ $40 $56 +$16 (+41%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Rafael Leão: 1+ goals Yes 20¢ 22¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Francisco Conceição: 1+ goals Yes 23¢ 15¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 +$52 +129%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $30 +$30 +97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $15 +$16 +105%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$10 +982%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Francisco Conceição: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Rafael Leão: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $3 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $40 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $31 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $41 23h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 56¢ $10 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 47h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $30 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $15 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 46¢ $10 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.52 · official $153.52 (match) · 26 history records