Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7763…7830 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,326 (-13%) realized −$9,802 · open +$2,476
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,378per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$227est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$4,911now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$7,118
sports 31% +$4,308
crypto 29% −$4,665
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -16.2% -24.2% 33% 33% -26.2%
≤30d 36 -16.2% -24.2% 33% 33% -26.2%
≤90d 36 -16.2% -24.2% 33% 33% -26.2%
all 36 -16.2% -24.2% 33% 33% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 33% -26.2%
10% ← realistic here -31.4% 19% -33.3%
15% -38.0% 19% -39.7%
20% -44.1% 17% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$3,155) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -29% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$601 vs −$715 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$4,911
Realized−$9,802
Unrealized+$2,476
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$227
Open positions5
Markets (closed)36 / 41
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1,378
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 40¢ 84¢ $1,250 $2,631 +$1,381 (+111%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Under 50¢ 99¢ $1,150 $2,272 +$1,122 (+98%)
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-69%)
Will Desire Doue be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,239 +$474 +11%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $525 −$336 -64%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $4,138 +$576 +14%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $264 −$264 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,912 +$1,348 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,155 −$1,155 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $211 +$1,109 +526%
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $11 −$4 -41%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3,436 +$632 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6,225 −$3,494 -56%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,574 −$856 -54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5,736 −$5,736 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,643 +$1,875 +52%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $352 −$201 -57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4,764 +$817 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $313 +$66 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $525 −$525 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $321 −$236 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $330 −$323 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $8,247 −$150 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $54 +$85 +158%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$16 -49%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $11 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$14 +88%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $84 +$205 +243%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $158 −$157 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $104 −$103 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $58 −$7 -12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3,155 −$2,749 -87%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,097 −$575 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $523 43m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $679 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $522 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $787 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $4,239 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $189 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $525 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 3¢ $53 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $4,138 5h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $105 26h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $53 26h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $106 27h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $106 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $2,598 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $314 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $313 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $525 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $317 2d
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 SELL Under 81¢ $4,068 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $53 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $158 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $3,436 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 36¢ $2,731 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $6,225 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $718 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $1,049 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $525 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5,214 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,581 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,910.59 · official $4,786.03 · 113 history records