Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:49:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7763…9d0a other 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 369d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate49%22W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$2
world 24% −$15
politics 19% $0
economics 7% −$1
crypto 7% $0
tech 5% $0
weather 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 +3.9% -6.0% 56% 33% -15.7%
≤90d 9 +3.9% -6.0% 56% 33% -15.7%
all 45 +1.0% -8.7% 49% 7% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 7% -10.8%
10% -17.4% 2% -19.4%
15% -25.4% 0% -27.2%
20% -32.7% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

369d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses22 / 23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage369d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 38¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+42%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $31 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $1 $0 +21%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $1 $0 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $49 −$16 -33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $2 +$1 +27%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $20 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 11 $26 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 11 $2 $0 -15%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jul 10 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 4–11? Jul 10 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will Matteo Jorgenson win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $26 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 08 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11? Jul 08 $25 $0 +2%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 08 $25 $0 +2%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 07 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 2? Jul 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the Jul 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95-0.99ºC in June 2025? Jul 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Jul 03 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 03 $1 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 28 $6 $0 +1%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $8 8m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $22 9m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $31 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $23 38h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $9 38h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $32 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $31 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $32 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $28 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 31¢ $11 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 32¢ $13 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $29 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $33 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $49 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $2 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.52 · official $0.00 (match) · 172 history records