Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:07:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

77
0x7760…21f0
sports · 558 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$16,474 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$214,310 · open +$474
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,326
Realized−$214,310
Unrealized+$474
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses277 / 491
Whale WR (big bets)16%
Est. fees paid−$2,742
Open positions16
Markets (closed)768 / 558
History coverage20d
Avg bet$334
Trades / day160.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 16 History 768 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$240,855
7 days−$232,085
14 days−$219,937
30 days−$214,310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Over 53¢ 58¢ $1,336 $1,467 +$131 (+10%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 38¢ $1,417 $1,260 −$157 (-11%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Over 45¢ 47¢ $938 $978 +$39 (+4%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 62¢ 66¢ $788 $835 +$47 (+6%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Miami Marlins 55¢ 57¢ $787 $816 +$30 (+4%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Under 31¢ 60¢ $251 $475 +$224 (+89%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Yes 49¢ 57¢ $276 $323 +$47 (+17%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Under 43¢ 50¢ $245 $284 +$38 (+15%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Under 50¢ 53¢ $182 $192 +$10 (+5%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Over 28¢ 50¢ $101 $180 +$79 (+79%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Over 38¢ 44¢ $128 $146 +$18 (+14%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 46¢ 48¢ $124 $129 +$5 (+4%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) Boston Red Sox 89¢ 74¢ $149 $125 −$24 (-16%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Boston Red Sox 73¢ 63¢ $120 $103 −$16 (-14%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) Boston Red Sox 80¢ 78¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Tampa Bay Rays 13¢ 28¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+119%)
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Detroit Tigers 37¢ 0¢ $804 $0 −$804 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 53¢ 0¢ $279 $0 −$279 (-100%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 35¢ 0¢ $1,729 $0 −$1,729 (-100%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Cincinnati Reds 67¢ 0¢ $688 $0 −$688 (-100%)
Spread: Capitals (-1.5) Capitals 30¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 28¢ 0¢ $332 $0 −$332 (-100%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Yes 50¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Over 28¢ 0¢ $147 $0 −$147 (-100%)
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $1,718 $0 −$1,718 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 14 $804 −$804 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $279 −$279 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 14 $1,729 −$1,729 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 14 $688 −$688 -100%
Spread: Capitals (-1.5) Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Bo Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $147 −$147 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1,718 −$1,718 -100%
Hornets vs. Nets Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1,488 −$1,488 -100%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $2,432 −$2,432 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 14 $329 −$329 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Jun 14 $574 −$574 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $480 −$480 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 14 $664 −$664 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $119 −$119 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $338 −$338 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 14 $115 −$115 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $113 −$113 -100%
Daniss Jenkins: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $198 −$198 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 14 $314 −$314 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 14 $72 −$72 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1,693 −$1,693 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Jun 14 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 14 $545 −$545 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $1,836 −$1,836 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $2,203 −$2,203 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins Jun 14 $1,253 −$1,253 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 14 $1,891 −$1,891 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 14 $1,206 −$1,206 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $1,691 −$1,691 -100%
Spread: Bulls (-6.5) Jun 14 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Jun 14 $3,488 −$3,488 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $1,458 −$1,458 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Madrid Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Ethan Quinn Jun 14 $371 −$371 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $377 −$377 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 14 $516 −$516 -100%
Ausar Thompson: Assists O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $250 −$250 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. At Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $332 −$332 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $386 −$386 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Jun 14 $1,499 −$1,499 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 97% +$28,851
other 3% −$728
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 65¢ $525 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $271 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $198 15h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 64¢ $329 15h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 45¢ $131 17h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $316 17h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ $842 18h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 86¢ $72 20h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 74¢ $104 20h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 47¢ $77 20h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 26¢ $67 20h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 27¢ $0 20h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 27¢ $49 20h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 81¢ $50 20h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 46¢ $265 20h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 39¢ $654 20h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 67¢ $300 21h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 44¢ $283 21h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 63¢ $631 21h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $238 21h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 61¢ $571 21h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 61¢ $7 21h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Texas Rangers 13¢ $134 21h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Texas Rangers 13¢ $17 21h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 45¢ $232 21h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 84¢ $136 23h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 67¢ $263 23h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 71¢ $117 38h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $158 39h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 76¢ $128 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 462 -68.0% -71.1% 18% 18% -82.1%
≤30d 768 -28.7% -35.5% 36% 36% -60.5%
≤90d 768 -28.7% -35.5% 36% 36% -60.5%
all 768 -28.7% -35.5% 36% 36% -60.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover160.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.5% 36% -60.5%
10% ← realistic here -41.6% 31% -64.2%
15% -47.3% 26% -67.7%
20% -52.4% 22% -70.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,325.67 · official $7,325.73 (match) · 3500 history records