Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:35:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

77
0x7760…3a70
weather · 1137 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$56 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$56 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$165
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1037 / 88
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1125 / 1137
History coverage111d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 12 History 1125 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 1? No 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 27? No 100¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 2? No 93¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 3? No 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 20? No 97¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 85°F or below on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 11°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 91% −$42
crypto 8% −$16
world 0% +$1
politics 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $15 59m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 535 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 848 -0.1% -9.6% 100% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 1102 -3.8% -12.9% 93% 4% -11.9%
all 1125 -1.3% -10.7% 92% 4% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 4% -10.6%
10% -19.2% 3% -19.2%
15% -27.0% 2% -27.0%
20% -34.2% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.11 · official $165.11 (match) · 2416 history records