Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:29:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x775d…6beb sports 579 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (195 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18,220 (-14%) realized −$17,754 · open −$466
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%298W / 482L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day195.2pace
Fees−$1,416est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$6,917now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$1,851
other 9% +$1,163
crypto 1% −$380
world 1% +$328
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (195 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 461 -23.6% -30.9% 24% 22% -53.0%
≤30d 780 -5.5% -14.5% 38% 35% -28.5%
≤90d 780 -5.5% -14.5% 38% 35% -28.5%
all 780 -5.5% -14.5% 38% 35% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover195.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 35% -28.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 30% -35.3%
15% -30.2% 24% -41.6%
20% -37.0% 18% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +18% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$133 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$6,917
Realized−$17,754
Unrealized−$466
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses298 / 482
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$1,416
Open positions32
Markets (closed)780 / 579
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$229
Trades / day195.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 780 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Juan Sebastian Gomez 57¢ 100¢ $799 $1,394 +$595 (+75%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 50¢ 100¢ $611 $1,220 +$608 (+100%)
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Belle Thompson 43¢ 48¢ $1,002 $1,107 +$105 (+10%)
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Celia Anson Sanchez 40¢ 52¢ $295 $380 +$85 (+29%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Felix Gill 71¢ 72¢ $331 $332 +$1 (+0%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 66¢ $263 $298 +$35 (+13%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 66¢ $173 $273 +$100 (+58%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 68¢ 76¢ $155 $175 +$20 (+13%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Over 73¢ 65¢ $182 $162 −$19 (-11%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 53¢ 52¢ $157 $156 −$1 (-0%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 72¢ $151 $145 −$6 (-4%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Kansas City Royals 41¢ 40¢ $131 $126 −$5 (-4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 63¢ 58¢ $127 $117 −$10 (-8%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 41¢ 100¢ $41 $100 +$59 (+144%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 89¢ 100¢ $89 $100 +$11 (+12%)
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 12¢ 8¢ $121 $86 −$34 (-29%)
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Team Nemesis 84¢ 82¢ $84 $82 −$2 (-2%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 65¢ 60¢ $73 $68 −$5 (-7%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score No 31¢ 34¢ $59 $66 +$7 (+11%)
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Team Nemesis 90¢ 96¢ $57 $61 +$4 (+7%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Under 93¢ 82¢ $62 $55 −$7 (-12%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 34¢ $59 $50 −$9 (-15%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 60¢ 100¢ $30 $50 +$20 (+67%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 48¢ 48¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? No 67¢ 64¢ $43 $42 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 455 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Kaufland Hangry Knights vs Eintracht Spandau (BO1) - Prime League Jun 15 $190 −$329 -173%
BMW Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Alex Molcan Jun 15 $225 −$225 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-02? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 15 $145 −$145 -100%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Atreides (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Euro Jun 15 $247 −$229 -93%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Lotte Giants Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Madrid Open: Cristian Garin vs Alexander Blockx Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
T20 Blast: Glamorgan vs Somerset Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs Walczaki (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series Jun 15 $702 −$702 -100%
T20 Series Namibia vs Scotland: Namibia vs Scotland Jun 15 $136 +$5 +4%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga Jun 15 $2,678 −$2,678 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 15 $64 −$40 -63%
Wuning 2: Li Tu vs Charles Broom Jun 15 $335 −$284 -85%
Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Jiujiang: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Viktoria Morvayova Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Madrid Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs GenOne (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Jun 15 $30 −$26 -87%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 15 $371 −$371 -100%
Will Kristiansund BK win on 2026-05-29? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Gwangju: Liam Broady vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $118 −$118 -100%
Valorant: BBL Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Jun 15 $1,767 −$1,779 -101%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-03? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-05-06? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will ZED FC win on 2026-05-07? Jun 15 $65 +$155 +237%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Christ Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will West Bromwich Albion FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? Jun 15 $512 −$512 -100%
Shymkent 2: Sergey Fomin vs Jelle Sels Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Kasımpaşa SK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Abidjan: Hamish Stewart vs Eliakim Coulibaly Jun 15 $6 −$65 -1034%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 15 $265 −$246 -93%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Jun 15 $606 −$606 -100%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey Baptiste Jun 15 $231 −$231 -100%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud Jun 15 $180 −$180 -100%
Chisinau: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Luca Nardi Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2026-04-18? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Shymkent 2: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Sora Fukuda Jun 15 $1 +$40 +5980%
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will AC Monza win on 2026-05-01? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Madrid Open: Anna Bondar vs Elina Svitolina Jun 15 $109 −$87 -80%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-04-17? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC end in a draw? Jun 15 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-07? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 34¢ $9 0m
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner BUY Hokori 19¢ $18 0m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Celia Anson Sanchez 36¢ $3 1m
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 76¢ $18 1m
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 25¢ $7 1m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 70¢ $8 2m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 36¢ $16 2m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 35¢ $16 2m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 34¢ $2 2m
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America BUY Hokori 10¢ $2 2m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 48¢ $24 2m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 64¢ $32 2m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 61¢ $31 2m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 52¢ $26 3m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Celia Anson Sanchez 54¢ $28 4m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Celia Anson Sanchez 51¢ $5 5m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Celia Anson Sanchez 51¢ $8 5m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Celia Anson Sanchez 51¢ $8 5m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Celia Anson Sanchez 51¢ $6 5m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Celia Anson Sanchez 51¢ $21 5m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Celia Anson Sanchez 51¢ $5 5m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Celia Anson Sanchez 51¢ $26 5m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Celia Anson Sanchez 51¢ $26 5m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 65¢ $33 6m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Celia Anson Sanchez 47¢ $21 6m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Celia Anson Sanchez 46¢ $24 6m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Celia Anson Sanchez 46¢ $3 6m
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 9¢ $6 6m
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 9¢ $8 6m
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 9¢ $1 6m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,917.14 · official $6,959.53 (match) · 3500 history records