Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:10:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x775a…0874 other 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$104 (+0%) realized +$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate25%18W / 53L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$302per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 62% −$13
politics 21% −$14
other 13% +$13
sports 1% +$115
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 +5.9% -4.2% 20% 7% -7.8%
≤90d 58 +11.0% +0.4% 28% 21% -7.4%
all 71 +8.8% -1.5% 25% 17% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 17% -9.1%
10% -10.9% 17% -17.8%
15% -19.5% 15% -25.7%
20% -27.4% 15% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×6.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses18 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)71 / 74
History coverage602d
Avg bet$302
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $115 $115 −$0 (-0%)
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $22 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $27 $0 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $13 +$11 +90%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $62 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $68 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $21 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $38 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $165 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $178 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $166 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $174 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $166 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $166 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $174 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 25 $186 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $188 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $179 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $179 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $186 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $177 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 23 $174 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $182 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $171 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 18 $182 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $172 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $173 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $188 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $181 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $180 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $188 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 13 $4 +$6 +165%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 13 $8 +$6 +72%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 13 $13 +$11 +86%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $13 +$16 +124%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 07 $10 +$7 +79%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 06 $21 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $22 2h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 25h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 26h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 46h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $115 3d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $37 7d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $37 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 7d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $36 8d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 8d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $13 9d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 14d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 14d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 14d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $28 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $28 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 18d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 19d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 19d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 19d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 19d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $53 21d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 24d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $62 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.37 · official $172.37 (match) · 295 history records