Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?	Yes	30¢	0¢	$2,859	$0	−$2,859 (-100%)
Will OpenAI release an open source model before July?	Yes	68¢	0¢	$2,458	$0	−$2,458 (-100%)
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$1,816	$0	−$1,816 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	Yes	33¢	0¢	$100	$0	−$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	39¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-100%)
Will GPT-5 be released by May 31?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$263	$0	−$263 (-100%)
Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in December?	Yes	63¢	0¢	$201	$0	−$201 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	May 10	$103	−$100	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Mar 21	$1	−$1	-99%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	Mar 06	$4,134	+$3,970	+96%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Mar 06	$23,756	+$59,896	+252%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	Jan 29	$1,816	−$1,816	-100%
Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in December?	Jan 13	$291	−$190	-65%
Will OpenAI release an open source model before July?	Jun 07	$6,634	−$4,577	-69%
Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?	Apr 15	$2,859	−$2,859	-100%
Will GPT-5 be released by May 31?	Apr 06	$263	−$263	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

economics 75% +$62,049

tech 24% −$7,698

sports 1% −$190

finance 0% −$100

crypto 0% −$1

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	BUY Yes	33¢	$103	32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$1	83d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	BUY Yes	9¢	$516	134d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	BUY Yes	9¢	$250	134d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	BUY Yes	28¢	$2,107	134d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	BUY Yes	7¢	$490	137d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	BUY Yes	7¢	$560	137d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	BUY No	52¢	$4	138d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	BUY No	52¢	$437	138d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	BUY No	51¢	$3,694	138d
Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in December?	SELL Yes	74¢	$16	149d
Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in December?	SELL Yes	74¢	$5	149d
Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in December?	SELL Yes	70¢	$70	149d
Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in December?	SELL Yes	70¢	$10	149d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	BUY Yes	37¢	$7,584	150d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	BUY Yes	45¢	$1,287	151d
Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in December?	BUY Yes	63¢	$13	152d
Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in December?	BUY Yes	63¢	$3	152d
Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in December?	BUY Yes	63¢	$3	152d
Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in December?	BUY Yes	63¢	$3	152d
Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in December?	BUY Yes	63¢	$70	153d
Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in December?	BUY Yes	63¢	$3	153d
Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in December?	BUY Yes	63¢	$6	153d
Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in December?	BUY Yes	63¢	$3	153d
Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in December?	BUY Yes	63¢	$102	153d
Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in December?	BUY Yes	63¢	$24	153d
Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in December?	BUY Yes	63¢	$25	153d
Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in December?	BUY Yes	63¢	$37	153d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	BUY Yes	30¢	$13	162d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	BUY Yes	30¢	$6	162d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +22%

net ROI/market (all)-44.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	9	-38.5%	-44.3%	22%	22%	+133.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-44.3%	22%	+133.3%
10% ← realistic here	-49.7%	22%	+111.0%
15%	-54.5%	22%	+90.6%
20%	-59.0%	22%	+71.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.