Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:21:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7758…42a9 crypto 1321 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,051 (-9%) realized −$6,051 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%589W / 816L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day79.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 296 -71.9% -74.6% 13% 12% -87.6%
≤30d 993 -16.5% -24.5% 40% 39% -35.8%
≤90d 1405 -13.8% -22.0% 42% 40% -28.9%
all 1405 -13.8% -22.0% 42% 40% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.0% 40% -28.9%
10% ← realistic here -29.5% 38% -35.7%
15% -36.3% 35% -41.9%
20% -42.6% 30% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$47 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,051
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses589 / 816
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1405 / 1321
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day79.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1405 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $330 −$330 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $44 −$63 -142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$8 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$12 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $147 −$147 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $141 −$141 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $56 −$42 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $50 −$43 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $68 −$42 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $175 −$175 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $152 −$134 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $18 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $30 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $15 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $16 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $31 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $14 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $22 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $19 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $43 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $23 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $16 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $25 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $13 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $23 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $14 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $19 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $6 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $9 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $9 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $29 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records