Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:45:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x7757…120c other 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,387 (+5%) realized +$2,220 · open +$167
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate78%87W / 25L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$434per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$2,426now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$760
7 days+$1,368
14 days+$1,398
30 days+$2,066
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$2,039
sports 15% +$150
world 1% +$48
crypto 1% +$128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +19.6% +8.2% 100% 44% -0.2%
≤30d 17 +16.2% +5.1% 88% 53% +1.8%
≤90d 81 +1.6% -8.1% 78% 46% -4.7%
all 112 -0.2% -9.7% 78% 46% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 46% -5.2%
10% -18.4% 21% -14.3%
15% -26.3% 16% -22.6%
20% -33.5% 9% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$157 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$2,426
Realized+$2,220
Unrealized+$167
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses87 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage164d
Avg bet$434
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? No 90¢ 97¢ $2,259 $2,426 +$167 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,114 +$371 +18%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $203 +$131 +64%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,765 +$220 +12%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,732 +$39 +2%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,610 +$119 +7%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,573 +$38 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $493 +$288 +58%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,598 +$58 +2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,112 +$105 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $151 +$97 +64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1,125 +$66 +6%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $101 −$100 -99%
France leading at halftime? Jun 04 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $81 +$89 +109%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 03 $221 +$79 +36%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,059 +$563 +53%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $350 +$105 +30%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $397 −$397 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $385 +$65 +17%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $242 +$100 +41%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $201 +$99 +49%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $399 +$64 +16%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $403 +$110 +27%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $345 +$46 +13%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $57 −$44 -77%
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $74 −$73 -99%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $400 +$73 +18%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $201 +$76 +38%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $396 +$68 +17%
Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $399 +$44 +11%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $701 +$35 +5%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $297 +$275 +92%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $596 −$27 -4%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $839 −$434 -52%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score May 04 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $420 +$73 +17%
Will Al Najmah Saudi Club win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $299 +$48 +16%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $398 +$70 +18%
Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $156 +$32 +21%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $550 +$134 +24%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $254 +$164 +64%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $400 +$8 +2%
Gil Vicente FC vs. Casa Pia AC: O/U 4.5 Apr 28 $410 +$35 +9%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $400 +$10 +2%
Will AVS Futebol win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $508 +$18 +4%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $472 +$37 +8%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $467 +$5 +1%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $556 +$65 +12%
Will Angers SCO win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $515 +$37 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $2,266 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $2,485 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 85¢ $149 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 85¢ $1,966 3h
France leading at halftime? SELL No 95¢ $263 8h
France leading at halftime? SELL No 95¢ $15 8h
France leading at halftime? SELL No 95¢ $19 8h
France leading at halftime? SELL No 95¢ $2 8h
France leading at halftime? SELL No 95¢ $10 8h
France leading at halftime? SELL No 95¢ $24 8h
France leading at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $203 9h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $1,002 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 98¢ $983 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $87 31h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $15 31h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $121 31h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $44 31h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $356 31h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $733 31h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $409 31h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $1,771 34h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $1,732 37h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $1,409 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $25 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $200 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $96 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $1,141 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $27 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $442 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $1,611 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,426.43 · official $2,426.43 (match) · 374 history records