Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
77 0x7753…73ce sports 1134 markets active 1h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 263d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,667 (-4%) realized −$12,667 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate58%661W / 473L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$536est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$93
14 days−$153
30 days−$1,229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$7,689
other 34% −$2,983
world 0% −$8
crypto 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -4.1% -13.3% 41% 29% -16.5%
≤30d 71 -4.4% -13.5% 48% 30% -18.2%
≤90d 269 -0.5% -10.0% 59% 34% -10.7%
all 1134 -3.2% -12.4% 58% 34% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 34% -12.6%
10% -20.8% 15% -21.0%
15% -28.4% 6% -28.6%
20% -35.4% 2% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$68 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12,667
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses661 / 473
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$536
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1134 / 1134
History coverage264d ⚠
Avg bet$272
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1134 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24 +$4 +17%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $22 +$2 +9%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $18 +$4 +23%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $27 −$9 -33%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 −$8 -22%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $73 −$11 -16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $83 −$9 -11%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $69 +$13 +19%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $59 +$10 +17%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $84 −$24 -29%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $82 +$2 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $83 −$1 -1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $68 +$15 +22%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $93 −$25 -27%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 11 $96 −$3 -3%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $146 −$51 -34%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $149 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $30 +$5 +15%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $34 −$4 -10%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $37 −$3 -7%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $32 +$4 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $29 +$3 +9%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Alina Charaeva Jun 04 $30 $0 -2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $447 −$65 -14%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $257 +$16 +6%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $200 +$57 +28%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $223 +$27 +12%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $200 +$23 +11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $287 −$31 -11%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $292 −$5 -2%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $266 +$26 +10%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina May 30 $256 +$10 +4%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $201 +$55 +27%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $208 −$7 -3%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner May 30 $173 +$34 +20%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner May 30 $370 −$58 -16%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 29 $221 +$11 +5%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Viktorija Golubic May 29 $246 −$25 -10%
Roland Garros WTA: Julia Grabher vs Amanda Anisimova May 28 $210 +$36 +17%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic May 27 $158 +$51 +32%
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elena Rybakina May 27 $200 −$42 -21%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Katie Volynets May 27 $231 −$31 -13%
Jannik Sinner vs. Clement Tabur: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 26 $200 +$31 +16%
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi May 26 $217 −$17 -8%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Taylor Townsend May 26 $257 −$39 -15%
Roland Garros ATP: Thomas Faurel vs Valentin Vacherot May 26 $221 +$17 +8%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Zakharova vs Karolina Muchova May 25 $262 −$99 -38%
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Safiullin (+1.5) May 25 $201 −$21 -10%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin May 25 $131 +$1 +1%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 25 $303 −$172 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $28 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $24 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 91¢ $24 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 83¢ $22 5h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $22 5h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 81¢ $18 7h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 54¢ $18 7h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 79¢ $27 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 54¢ $27 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 26h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo SELL Alex de Minaur 71¢ $62 26h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 83¢ $73 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 83¢ $73 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $83 2d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda SELL Tommy Paul 87¢ $83 2d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 72¢ $69 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 94¢ $69 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 80¢ $59 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 60¢ $59 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 83¢ $84 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 80¢ $84 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 78¢ $82 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 81¢ $82 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 81¢ $83 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $83 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 81¢ $68 4d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria SELL Elena Rybakina 61¢ $68 5d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 82¢ $93 5d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard SELL Daniil Medvedev 88¢ $93 6d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Daniil Medvedev 90¢ $96 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records