Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:39:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7753…feb0 crypto 1326 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$221 (-9%) realized −$221 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate61%810W / 515L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$180
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -44.8% -50.1% 26% 16% -21.2%
≤30d 193 -13.8% -22.1% 30% 18% -17.3%
≤90d 1322 -7.6% -16.4% 61% 43% -16.4%
all 1325 -7.5% -16.3% 61% 43% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 43% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 22% -24.3%
15% -31.7% 12% -31.6%
20% -38.4% 7% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$221
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses810 / 515
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1325 / 1326
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1325 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 32¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 28 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 28 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 28 $5 −$1 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 28 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 28 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 28 $3 $0 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 28 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 28 $5 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 28 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 28 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 28 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 28 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 28 $5 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 28 $5 −$1 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 28 $3 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 28 $2 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 28 $3 $0 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 28 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 28 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 28 $7 −$1 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 28 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 28 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 28 $4 −$1 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 28 $7 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 28 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 28 $2 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 28 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 28 $5 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 28 $2 $0 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 28 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 28 $2 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.32 · official $1.32 (match) · 3500 history records