Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:51:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7752…8681 sports 291 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$837 (-6%) realized −$837 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate61%178W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$154est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$301
14 days−$823
30 days−$1,077
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$1,078
other 0% +$11
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -32.8% -39.2% 39% 35% -32.4%
≤30d 156 -11.8% -20.2% 58% 48% -23.9%
≤90d 281 -7.2% -16.0% 61% 53% -16.2%
all 290 -6.7% -15.6% 61% 54% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 54% -16.0%
10% -23.7% 39% -24.1%
15% -31.0% 29% -31.4%
20% -37.8% 15% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$28 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$837
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses178 / 112
Est. fees paid−$154
Open positions1
Markets (closed)290 / 291
History coverage93d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $27 +$11 +40%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $45 −$1 -3%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $38 +$17 +44%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $22 −$21 -96%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $71 +$8 +12%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 203.5 Jun 14 $30 −$27 -90%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $141 +$12 +9%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $151 −$150 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $15 −$12 -82%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $131 +$22 +17%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$17 -84%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -96%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $61 −$58 -94%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 +$15 +97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $30 −$26 -85%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $192 −$44 -23%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $46 +$6 +14%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 Jun 11 $30 +$9 +31%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 11 $10 +$6 +57%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $10 −$6 -58%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $61 +$30 +49%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $252 −$242 -96%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $61 −$56 -92%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $76 −$24 -32%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $152 −$145 -95%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $112 −$70 -62%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $30 +$29 +94%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $30 +$10 +34%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $35 +$15 +43%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $100 +$11 +11%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $30 +$11 +36%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $50 +$23 +46%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $50 −$15 -30%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 06 $20 +$9 +46%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 +$37 +180%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Jun 06 $40 −$2 -5%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 Jun 06 $10 $0 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $20 −$14 -71%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 04 $121 −$32 -26%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 Jun 04 $150 +$18 +12%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $37 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $27 32h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 68¢ $21 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 63¢ $20 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 43¢ $10 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 21¢ $5 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 39¢ $10 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 62¢ $30 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 31¢ $15 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 69¢ $25 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 2¢ $1 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 61¢ $22 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $22 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 66¢ $23 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 72¢ $25 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 95¢ $45 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 46¢ $31 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 203.5 SELL Over 6¢ $3 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 203.5 BUY Over 58¢ $30 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $25 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $2 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 83¢ $151 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 93¢ $151 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 85¢ $141 4d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 8¢ $3 4d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $15 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 93¢ $153 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 79¢ $131 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 7¢ $3 4d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 2¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.76 · official $36.76 (match) · 752 history records