Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7751…4d14 sports 393 markets active 2d ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$194 (-10%) realized −$194 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%232W / 160L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$2
14 days−$41
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$200
other 19% +$12
crypto 1% $0
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -22.7% -30.1% 50% 50% -24.4%
≤30d 24 -15.5% -23.6% 50% 50% -35.9%
≤90d 153 -9.2% -17.8% 59% 54% -26.2%
all 392 -7.6% -16.4% 59% 55% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 55% -18.9%
10% -24.4% 44% -26.7%
15% -31.7% 34% -33.8%
20% -38.4% 24% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$194
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses232 / 160
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)392 / 393
History coverage228d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 392 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 149 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $9 +$10 +114%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 +$1 +44%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $12 −$12 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $31 −$31 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $7 +$10 +142%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 31 $9 +$4 +49%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 29 $5 +$4 +83%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $10 +$7 +65%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $5 +$3 +62%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $44 −$44 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 26 $36 +$27 +74%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $23 −$23 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 May 21 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 19 $2 $0 +25%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $6 −$6 -99%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $5 −$5 -99%
76ers vs. Celtics May 02 $9 −$9 -99%
Pistons vs. Magic May 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 01 $3 −$3 -99%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $14 −$14 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 30 $2 −$2 -99%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 30 $6 +$2 +42%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 27 $2 +$1 +42%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $2 −$2 -99%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 25 $3 −$3 -99%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 24 $8 +$8 +101%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $2 $0 +26%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $5 +$1 +18%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $11 +$1 +13%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 19 $10 +$3 +25%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 19 $10 +$5 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 37h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $3 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $1 6d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 7d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 7d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY TYLOO 47¢ $1 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $9 9d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 69¢ $2 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 36¢ $2 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $10 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $31 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $7 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $12 17d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $10 19d
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions BUY Shanghai Sharks 54¢ $5 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 61¢ $5 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes $1 21d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 71¢ $44 21d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 58¢ $26 23d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 54¢ $10 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 55¢ $23 25d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 27d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 61¢ $2 28d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.03 · official $2.03 (match) · 778 history records