Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:52:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

77
0x7751…4dab
other · 900 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$149 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$140 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$51
Realized−$140
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses313 / 570
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions17
Markets (closed)883 / 900
History coverage222d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%
Chart Positions 17 History 883 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$5
14 days−$2
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 81¢ 82¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31? Yes 9¢ 30¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+233%)
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+45%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
California voter ID referendum passes? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-47%)
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-65%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 26¢ 12¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Will Jensen Huang be richest person on December 31? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $500B by December 31? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? Yes 38¢ 5¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-87%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 39¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Kings vs. Celtics Kings 18¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-24? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-25? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? No 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-02-18? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-01-22? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 10 $7 +$2 +25%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 09 $9 −$1 -8%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -81%
Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31? Jun 06 $1 $0 -5%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31? Jun 03 $2 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 2? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 27 $5 +$9 +173%
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el May 24 $8 $0 +1%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $3 +$7 +216%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? May 22 $3 $0 -10%
Valantis FDV above $20M one day after launch? May 22 $5 −$2 -50%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by December 31? May 22 $7 −$4 -58%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31? May 22 $7 $0 +1%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $7 +$3 +34%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 +$2 +78%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 +$3 +97%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $4 +$2 +55%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $2 +$1 +64%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $4 +$6 +134%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 11 $7 +$3 +34%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $12 +$8 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 49°F or below on May 11? May 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $6 +$3 +46%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 04 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $2 +$8 +365%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $6 +$4 +60%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $6 +$4 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 63% +$66
sports 19% +$66
politics 4% −$17
world 4% −$65
tech 3% −$54
crypto 3% −$40
culture 1% −$34
weather 1% −$34
finance 1% −$17
economics 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 2d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 3d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 44¢ $4 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 8d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $7 10d
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +14.7% +3.8% 50% 50% +4.0%
≤30d 35 -15.8% -23.8% 40% 34% -30.3%
≤90d 190 -6.8% -15.7% 41% 38% -16.1%
all 883 -3.7% -12.8% 35% 34% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 34% -13.3%
10% -21.2% 33% -21.6%
15% -28.8% 29% -29.1%
20% -35.8% 26% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.17 · official $51.17 (match) · 1765 history records