Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
77 0x774b…6955 finance 216 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$197 (+4%) realized +$174 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate96%192W / 7L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$526now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$37
14 days+$50
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 59% +$166
other 21% +$41
tech 14% +$18
world 3% −$20
sports 1% +$1
politics 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +1.4% -8.3% 96% 15% -4.5%
≤30d 110 +1.8% -7.9% 96% 11% -5.7%
≤90d 199 +1.4% -8.2% 96% 8% -6.1%
all 199 +1.4% -8.2% 96% 8% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 8% -6.1%
10% -17.0% 2% -15.1%
15% -25.0% 1% -23.3%
20% -32.4% 0% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.97 per $1 lost it wins $3.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$526
Realized+$174
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses192 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)199 / 216
History coverage48d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 86¢ 89¢ $90 $93 +$3 (+4%)
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $85 $85 +$0 (+0%)
Will Smith & Wesson (SWBI) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 65¢ 100¢ $54 $83 +$29 (+53%)
Will Carnival (CCL) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $65 $68 +$3 (+4%)
Will Micron Technology (MU) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 92¢ 96¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Will Korn Ferry (KFY) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.1B? Yes 90¢ 96¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+6%)
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $1.9B? Yes 85¢ 91¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Nike (NKE) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 87¢ 46¢ $30 $16 −$14 (-47%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $25B? Yes 94¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? No 88¢ 90¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.55B? Yes 94¢ 93¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be below -3%? No 95¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will BP be acquired before 2027? No 87¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will McCormick (MKC) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 85¢ 81¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 15 2026? No 93¢ 91¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $285 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 13 $40 +$2 +5%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $40 +$2 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $29 +$2 +7%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at <$132 on the final day of trading of the Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $196 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Lennar Q2 deliveries be above 17,500? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +19%
Will Adobe (ADBE) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $121 +$14 +11%
Will Adobe Q2 total ARR be above $26.0B? Jun 11 $65 +$5 +8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Oracle Q4 Remaining Performance Obligations be above $500B? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $85 +$12 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $200? Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $100 +$3 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $40 +$1 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $590 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $495 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will Samsara (IOT) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 04 $60 +$2 +3%
Will Docusign (DOCU) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 04 $150 +$6 +4%
Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $10.5B? Jun 04 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Ciena Q2 Networking Platforms revenue be above $1.1B? Jun 04 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Broadcom (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 03 $140 +$6 +5%
Will CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 03 $120 +$7 +5%
Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above $225M? Jun 03 $10 $0 +4%
Will Five Below (FIVE) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 03 $70 +$5 +8%
Will GitLab (GTLB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 02 $50 +$3 +7%
Will Palo Alto Networks (PANW) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 02 $70 +$3 +4%
Will Palo Alto Networks Q3 Next-Generation Security ARR be above $7.5B Jun 02 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 01 $70 +$3 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 2h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $10 3h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $10 3h
Will Nike (NKE) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 16h
Will Carnival (CCL) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 90¢ $15 22h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 93¢ $9 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $10 39h
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $10 44h
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 46h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $285 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 2d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 99¢ $10 2d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 99¢ $10 2d
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 90¢ $12 2d
Will Nike (NKE) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 2d
Will McCormick (MKC) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 2d
Will Smith & Wesson (SWBI) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 3d
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 4d
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be below -3%? BUY No 95¢ $10 4d
Will Korn Ferry (KFY) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 4d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $42 4d
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 4d
Will Micron Technology (MU) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 93¢ $20 4d
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 4d
Will Korn Ferry (KFY) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 4d
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 4d
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 4d
Will Carnival (CCL) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $526.24 · official $526.24 (match) · 645 history records