Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:48:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x774a…c96a crypto 254 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (443 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$480 (+5%) realized +$483 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate64%158W / 88L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day442.6pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$350
other 1% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (443 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 246 -0.7% -10.2% 64% 53% -5.3%
≤30d 246 -0.7% -10.2% 64% 53% -5.3%
≤90d 246 -0.7% -10.2% 64% 53% -5.3%
all 246 -0.7% -10.2% 64% 53% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover442.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 53% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 41% -14.4%
15% -26.6% 31% -22.7%
20% -33.8% 21% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$20 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$483
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses158 / 88
Open positions7
Markets (closed)246 / 254
History coverage2d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day442.6
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Iraq? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? No 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Iraq? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-20%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $16 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $215 +$185 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $93 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$17 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $53 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $217 +$35 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $47 −$34 -72%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $18 +$96 +519%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $37 +$36 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$18 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $49 +$51 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$16 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$14 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$12 +79%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$7 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $16 +$16 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$6 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $56 +$23 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $16 −$11 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $16 +$10 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $11 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $11 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $9 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $32 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $45 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $108 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.91 · official $21.91 (match) · 847 history records