Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:42:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7749…2e33 crypto 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$465 (+11%) realized +$473 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate55%28W / 23L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$83
other 37% +$356
sports 7% −$1
weather 1% −$5
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -2.7% -12.0% 50% 36% -11.2%
≤30d 41 +5.9% -4.2% 46% 34% -3.1%
≤90d 50 +5.0% -5.0% 54% 34% -6.6%
all 51 +5.3% -4.7% 55% 35% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 35% +0.1%
10% -13.8% 24% -9.4%
15% -22.1% 4% -18.2%
20% -29.8% 4% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$13 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.97 per $1 lost it wins $2.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$473
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses28 / 23
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage203d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 45¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $11 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $55 −$5 -9%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $97 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $89 +$9 +10%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $13 −$8 -63%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $17 +$4 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $18 −$3 -18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 28 $217 +$72 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 27 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 26 $32 −$20 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 25 $51 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? May 25 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 24 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 24 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 23 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 23 $3 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 22 $1 +$4 +351%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3? May 03 $1,119 +$167 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1PM ET May 01 $176 −$176 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 30? Apr 30 $268 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9AM ET Apr 30 $222 +$33 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 30 $1 +$1 +66%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 23 $22 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 99¢ $16 11m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 45¢ $8 13m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 38¢ $6 18m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 51¢ $4 48m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 28¢ $2 49m
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston SELL Felix Gill 83¢ $4 1h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston SELL Hugo Gaston 30¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 99¢ $11 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Jakub Mensik 24¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 41¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 48¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $64 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 30¢ $19 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $16 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $10 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 49¢ $8 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 28¢ $2 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 31¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $64 23h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 31¢ $20 24h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 52¢ $17 24h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 30¢ $11 24h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 61¢ $9 24h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $4 24h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 36¢ $3 24h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 99¢ $17 24h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 28¢ $5 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $5 46h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 31¢ $2 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.09 (match) · 222 history records