Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:04:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
77 0x7744…176d politics 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 560d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate90%78W / 9L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$2
sports 28% −$2
politics 25% +$1
crypto 11% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 2% $0
world 2% +$1
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 20 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 87 +0.4% -9.1% 90% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.5%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

560d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses78 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage560d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will BNB reach $1,000 in May? Jun 28 $27 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on June 1? Jun 28 $73 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 24? May 29 $70 $0 +0%
Will Kling AI: AI Image&Video Maker be #1 Free App in the US Apple App May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on May 16? May 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 14? May 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 12? May 14 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on May 12? May 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 12? May 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 29? May 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on April 28? May 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? May 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 28? May 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 18? Apr 24 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 8? Apr 18 $86 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 in March? Apr 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of March? Apr 08 $74 $0 +0%
Will Backpack launch a token on March 22? Mar 31 $35 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,100 in February? Mar 03 $103 $0 +0%
Zama FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 03 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 02 $108 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Jan 04 $5 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 21? Jan 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 15? Jan 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump try and fire Powell before June? Jun 23 $7 $0 +1%
X allowed to operate in China before May? May 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 4? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in his first 100 days? May 11 $19 $0 +0%
Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? May 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden? Apr 26 $13 $0 +0%
Was JFK assassination an inside job? Apr 07 $3 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Syria before April? Apr 07 $7 $0 +0%
Kanye's music pulled from Spotify before April? Apr 07 $7 $0 +0%
Boeing at fault for South Korea plane crash? Apr 07 $8 $0 +1%
Will the US sanction Ukraine before April? Apr 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Apr 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will Abdullah Öcalan be freed before April? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before April? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Trump uses a recess appointment for Cabinet? Apr 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 22 $18 $0 +0%
Trump cryptocurrency executive order this week? Mar 22 $21 $0 +1%
Fact Check: Did the U.S. hit Iranian spy ship? Mar 22 $34 $0 +1%
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15? Mar 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump cut Ukraine off from Starlink? Mar 17 $19 $0 +1%
FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be less than 46.5% on March 7? Mar 12 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on March 5? Mar 09 $4 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $68 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $73 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $70 37d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 45d
Will Kling AI: AI Image&Video Maker be #1 Free App in the US Apple App BUY No 100¢ $11 45d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $33 45d
Will BNB reach $1,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $27 49d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $37 49d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $32 49d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 49d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on April 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 60d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 61d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $25 61d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 100¢ $20 61d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $77 71d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $23 81d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $86 81d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $14 89d
Will Solana reach $110 in March? BUY No 100¢ $21 89d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $74 104d
Will Backpack launch a token on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $35 104d
Will BNB reach $1,100 in February? BUY No 100¢ $103 129d
Zama FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $102 145d
Zama FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $101 146d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $108 163d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 21? BUY No 100¢ $5 249d
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 15? BUY No 100¢ $29 256d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 256d
Will Trump try and fire Powell before June? BUY No 99¢ $7 410d
Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 415d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.07 · official $68.07 (match) · 190 history records