Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

77
0x7744…999e
sports · 72 markets active 7d ago
0.0score
−$57,527 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$144,975 · open +$31,651
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$177,049
Realized−$144,975
Unrealized+$31,651
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses28 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$339
Open positions8
Markets (closed)70 / 72
History coverage99d
Avg bet$41,997
Trades / day32.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 8 History 70 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$49,081
30 days+$52,310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 50¢ 64¢ $120,374 $156,138 +$35,764 (+30%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $22,832 $20,357 −$2,476 (-11%)
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 6¢ $1,017 $276 −$742 (-73%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes 26¢ 10¢ $634 $256 −$378 (-60%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 7¢ 68¢ $2 $16 +$14 (+879%)
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? No 19¢ 0¢ $505 $7 −$498 (-99%)
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 87¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $495 $0 −$495 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 02 $3,694 +$49,081 +1329%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 25 $5,207 +$3,229 +62%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? May 22 $1 $0 +37%
LoL: French Flair vs 3BL Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group E Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Berlin International Gaming vs The Otter Side (BO3) - EMEA Master Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Apr 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 1st? Apr 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Apr 12 $6,166 +$1,584 +26%
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 12 $288 −$288 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? Apr 12 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Clavicular be the top ranked Chad by March 31? Apr 12 $250 −$250 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th? Apr 12 $230 −$230 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Apr 12 $340 −$340 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 12 $120 −$120 -100%
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Apr 12 $10,800 +$1,020 +9%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Apr 12 $801 −$801 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Apr 12 $4,913 −$4,913 -100%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Apr 12 $116 −$116 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Apr 12 $75,196 −$2,708 -4%
UFC Fight Night: Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders (Middleweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $10,602 −$10,602 -100%
Flyers vs. Sharks Apr 12 $15,555 −$15,555 -100%
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans Apr 12 $10,700 −$10,694 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Apr 12 $22,994 −$22,994 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers - Map 1 Winner Apr 12 $23,306 −$23,306 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Apr 12 $24,587 −$24,587 -100%
Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats Apr 12 $8,995 −$8,995 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Apr 12 $54,928 −$54,928 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou Apr 12 $12,209 −$12,209 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playo Apr 12 $12,638 −$8,910 -70%
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels Apr 12 $7,515 −$7,515 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs BBL Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 12 $13,518 −$13,518 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Apr 12 $7,321 −$7,321 -100%
LoL: FN Esports vs Team Phantasma (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group H Apr 12 $27,162 −$23,568 -87%
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 12 $20,915 −$20,915 -100%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Apr 12 $4,025 −$4,025 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Apr 12 $53,701 −$53,701 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Apr 12 $18,400 −$18,400 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 12 $99,356 −$74,228 -75%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $155,259 −$73,835 -48%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $12,169 +$10,414 +86%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 01 $137,106 +$37,103 +27%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 01 $17,931 +$6,606 +37%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 01 $784,345 +$40,749 +5%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Mar 31 $40,073 +$17,303 +43%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $21,500 +$14,044 +65%
Senators vs. Rangers Mar 25 $18,600 +$11,400 +61%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-11.5) Mar 23 $50,073 +$31,674 +63%
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-4.5) Mar 23 $19,023 −$2,510 -13%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 22 $17,177 +$554 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 42% −$160,466
sports 28% −$81,117
other 26% +$27,496
politics 4% +$100,763
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $338 7d
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2 8d
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $14 8d
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $3 9d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $2,603 17d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $1 17d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $817 17d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $30 17d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $1,620 17d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $810 17d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $5 17d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $1,620 17d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $810 17d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $8 17d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $111 17d
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $65 62d
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LNG Esports 46¢ $20,915 63d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? SELL Yes 70¢ $20,649 65d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? SELL Yes 70¢ $1,934 65d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $20,814 66d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,329 66d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $20,728 66d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL No 0¢ $163 66d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL No 0¢ $334 68d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL No 0¢ $5 68d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $2,583 72d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $24,537 72d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $610,709 72d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $15,750 72d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $9,512 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +475.9% +421.1% 100% 100% +522.1%
≤90d 51 -24.6% -31.8% 29% 24% -21.9%
all 70 -9.9% -18.5% 40% 30% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 30% -14.0%
10% -26.3% 29% -22.2%
15% ← realistic here -33.4% 26% -29.7%
20% -39.9% 21% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177,049.30 · official $177,049.17 (match) · 3500 history records