Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:05:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
77 0x7744…fbee other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$202 (+2%) realized +$202 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,139per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$146
sports 2% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +10.4% -0.2% 55% 45% -8.3%
≤30d 11 +10.4% -0.2% 55% 45% -8.3%
≤90d 11 +10.4% -0.2% 55% 45% -8.3%
all 11 +10.4% -0.2% 55% 45% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 45% -8.3%
10% -9.7% 45% -17.1%
15% -18.4% 36% -25.1%
20% -26.4% 27% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$249 vs −$265 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$202
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1,139
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $201 +$61 +30%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$25 -81%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 +$146 +238%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9,967 +$562 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,005 −$1,000 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $61 −$59 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $406 +$415 +102%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $505 +$219 +43%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $263 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $61 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10,529 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $9,967 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 31¢ $204 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,005 44h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $821 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $61 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $406 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $139 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $724 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $41 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $404 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records