Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:16:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x7744…d6df other 221 markets active 1h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,055 (+5%) realized +$1,062 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%113W / 106L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$43
14 days+$63
30 days+$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$868
crypto 39% +$65
politics 5% −$5
economics 2% +$6
sports 1% +$93
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +26.0% +14.0% 55% 45% -1.8%
≤30d 20 +10.2% -0.3% 45% 40% +11.2%
≤90d 35 +0.5% -9.1% 40% 37% -0.3%
all 219 +3.0% -6.8% 52% 43% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 43% -5.2%
10% -15.7% 38% -14.3%
15% -23.9% 29% -22.6%
20% -31.3% 24% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$9 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$1,062
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses113 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)219 / 221
History coverage284d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 20¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-53%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 $0 -3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$11 +36%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $201 −$4 -2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$6 -23%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$25 +249%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $191 +$1 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 +$6 +41%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $20 +$24 +119%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $144 +$48 +33%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $31 +$112 +365%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 17 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $39 +$25 +64%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? May 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $12 +$22 +180%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 07 $30 +$103 +344%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 27 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-12? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-28? Apr 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $181 +$41 +23%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-30? Mar 29 $200 $0 -0%
Will Austria win on 2026-03-27? Mar 28 $136 +$91 +67%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? Mar 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-12? Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 21 $80 −$52 -65%
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $1 +$12 +1244%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atalanta win on 2025-10-04? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FK Rubin Kazan win on 2025-10-19? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-01-07? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-10-21? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07? Mar 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-21? Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Mar 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-12-03? Mar 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Mar 11 $26 −$5 -19%
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 31? Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-20? Mar 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL No 74¢ $12 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 82¢ $74 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 12h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $11 12h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $12 12h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $75 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $49 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 54¢ $13 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $5 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 85¢ $192 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 84¢ $183 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 47¢ $19 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $149 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 51¢ $11 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $14 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.45 · official $5.45 (match) · 472 history records