Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:34:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7743…1bae sports 288 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,228 (-10%) realized −$2,228 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%152W / 136L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$162est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$153
7 days+$268
14 days+$183
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$1,374
sports 39% −$1,017
other 18% −$186
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +4.8% -5.2% 48% 48% +10.7%
≤30d 53 -10.3% -18.9% 45% 45% -10.2%
≤90d 288 -5.1% -14.1% 53% 50% -19.9%
all 288 -5.1% -14.1% 53% 50% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 50% -19.9%
10% -22.3% 48% -27.5%
15% -29.8% 41% -34.5%
20% -36.7% 34% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$63 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,228
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses152 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$162
Open positions0
Markets (closed)288 / 288
History coverage81d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 288 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$12 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$13 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 23 $41 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $145 +$113 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $63 −$63 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $83 +$31 +38%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $38 −$38 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $93 +$29 +31%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $37 −$37 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $28 +$38 +134%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 22 $60 +$108 +180%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $34 −$19 -56%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $17 −$17 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $17 +$19 +109%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $71 +$52 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$20 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $83 −$16 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $38 +$49 +130%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $165 +$71 +43%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality - Game 6 Winner Jun 19 $35 −$3 -8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $111 −$110 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$48 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $193 +$88 +46%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $173 −$171 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $71 −$70 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $46 −$39 -86%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $91 +$55 +60%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 31 $56 −$55 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $25 −$25 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $386 +$122 +32%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 30 $76 −$69 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 30 $41 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 30 $204 +$55 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 30 $104 −$24 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 30 $104 +$66 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 30 $104 −$8 -7%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winne May 25 $10 −$9 -91%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner May 25 $20 +$10 +51%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 25 $59 +$36 +62%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 24 $61 −$31 -51%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 24 $61 −$61 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner May 24 $15 +$18 +116%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner May 24 $15 +$10 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $27 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $29 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $258 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund BUY Laura Siegemund 49¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $94 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 720 history records