Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:58:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

77
0x7741…23e6
sports · 78 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$3,586 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,570 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$973
Realized−$3,570
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses32 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions12
Markets (closed)66 / 78
History coverage52d
Avg bet$345
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 12 History 66 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$156
7 days−$518
14 days−$880
30 days−$3,213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Toby Samuel 79¢ 78¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Nicolas Kicker Nicolas Kicker 66¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Alexander Shevchenko 60¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley Jacob Fearnley 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Oliver Tarvet 66¢ 65¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Tristan Boyer 64¢ 62¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jesper de Jong 74¢ 74¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Roberto Carballes Baena 67¢ 66¢ $97 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Alex de Minaur 80¢ 80¢ $93 $94 +$1 (+1%)
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Daniil Medvedev 68¢ 62¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Alexander Bublik 56¢ 56¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Yunchaokete Bu Yunchaokete Bu 58¢ 58¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA 59¢ 0¢ $111 $0 −$111 (-100%)
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Winthrop University 57¢ 0¢ $145 $0 −$145 (-100%)
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs LOS 37¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 4 Winner CCG Esports 46¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Seattle Mariners 40¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 51¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner CCG Esports 25¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $142 −$94 -66%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $66 +$26 +40%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $47 +$20 +41%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $51 −$2 -4%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $248 −$16 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $88 −$34 -39%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 10 $70 +$17 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $74 +$15 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $102 −$32 -31%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $113 −$111 -99%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $110 +$2 +2%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 06 $70 −$69 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $63 +$7 +11%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $54 +$9 +17%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $49 +$5 +10%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $45 +$4 +9%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $3 −$1 -28%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $38 +$8 +22%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $304 −$300 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $202 +$84 +41%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $124 +$134 +108%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $111 +$14 +12%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $103 +$8 +7%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 04 $65 −$64 -98%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $163 −$139 -86%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $101 +$55 +55%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $97 +$54 +56%
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Filippo Romano Jun 04 $54 +$43 +80%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $105 −$1 -1%
Perugia: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Timofey Skatov Jun 03 $56 −$1 -2%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $44 +$11 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $819 −$87 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $13 −$1 -6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $14 −$1 -5%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $58 −$52 -89%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $277 −$160 -58%
Birmingham: Mary Stoiana vs Lulu Sun Jun 01 $926 −$78 -8%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 01 $239 +$58 +24%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $827 −$188 -23%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $261 +$165 +63%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $846 −$78 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $366 +$45 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $435 −$67 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $857 +$9 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $389 −$93 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 27 $10 $0 -3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $678 −$349 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 57% −$2,102
sports 27% −$785
other 17% −$699
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Jesper de Jong 74¢ $98 1h
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Bublik 56¢ $98 1h
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 67¢ $98 1h
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Yunchaokete Bu SELL Yunchaokete Bu 58¢ $99 1h
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 80¢ $94 3h
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Nicolas Kicker BUY Nicolas Kicker 66¢ $101 3h
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 56¢ $101 3h
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer BUY Tristan Boyer 64¢ $101 3h
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic BUY Daniil Medvedev 68¢ $101 3h
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 58¢ $101 3h
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano BUY Oliver Tarvet 66¢ $101 3h
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 79¢ $101 3h
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Yunchaokete Bu BUY Yunchaokete Bu 58¢ $101 3h
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Alexander Shevchenko 60¢ $101 3h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $93 11h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner SELL Karmine Corp Blue 100¢ $91 12h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 71¢ $66 14h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner SELL Karmine Corp Blue 100¢ $67 14h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 70¢ $47 20h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $47 20h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $49 21h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ $49 22h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $51 23h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 40¢ $57 32h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $57 33h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $54 36h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $54 38h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 40h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 40h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $14 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -16.1% -24.1% 52% 38% -33.1%
≤30d 58 -13.6% -21.8% 45% 33% -26.7%
≤90d 66 -10.7% -19.2% 48% 32% -22.1%
all 66 -10.7% -19.2% 48% 32% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 32% -22.1%
10% -27.0% 21% -29.5%
15% -34.0% 14% -36.4%
20% -40.5% 9% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $972.74 · official $972.22 (match) · 222 history records