Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:42:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7741…d7dc crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$24 (-5%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate35%9W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$68
world 13% +$7
weather 11% −$18
other 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-37.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -30.7% -37.3% 35% 27% -24.6%
≤30d 26 -30.7% -37.3% 35% 27% -24.6%
≤90d 26 -30.7% -37.3% 35% 27% -24.6%
all 26 -30.7% -37.3% 35% 27% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.3% 27% -24.6%
10% -43.3% 23% -31.8%
15% -48.7% 19% -38.4%
20% -53.8% 15% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses9 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage5d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Jun 16 $25 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 16 $20 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$27 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 15 $20 −$5 -27%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $11 −$2 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$9 +36%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 11 $21 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$30 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 1h
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? SELL No 51¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $34 1h
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? BUY No 55¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $43 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 24h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 37¢ $15 24h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $14 28h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 35¢ $21 28h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $21 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records