Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:26:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x7740…3c92 crypto 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+0%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%62W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$409now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 60 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 62 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$409
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses62 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage94d
Avg bet$346
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $409 $409 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $408 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $408 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $408 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $407 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $407 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $406 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $406 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $405 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $404 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $404 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $403 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $402 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $402 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 27 $402 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 25 $401 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $401 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $400 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $400 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $400 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $399 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $398 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $398 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 10 $397 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 09 $396 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? May 08 $396 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 08 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 06 $396 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 05 $395 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 04 $395 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $47 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $351 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $398 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 27? Apr 29 $395 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $395 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $394 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $394 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $394 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $393 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $393 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $392 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $391 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $390 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $390 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $409 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $408 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $408 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $408 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $407 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $407 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $406 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $406 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $405 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $404 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $404 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $403 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $402 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $4 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $402 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $4 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $402 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $4 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $401 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $401 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $400 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $400 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $400 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $399 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $399 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $398 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $398 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $397 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $396 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $408.89 · official $408.89 (match) · 125 history records