Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:57:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7740…f0c2 crypto 125 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$74 (+7%) realized +$72 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%65W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day36.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$18
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 +0.8% -8.8% 54% 51% -7.6%
≤30d 124 -2.4% -11.7% 52% 50% -11.0%
≤90d 124 -2.4% -11.7% 52% 50% -11.0%
all 124 -2.4% -11.7% 52% 50% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 50% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 45% -19.5%
15% -27.9% 38% -27.3%
20% -34.9% 28% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses65 / 59
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage8d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day36.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Down 46¢ 50¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$12 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$15 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$11 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$36 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $47 +$59 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$28 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$15 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$5 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $19 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $8 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $23 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $16 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $9 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.12 · official $21.69 (match) · 300 history records