Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:04:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

77 0x773e…7862 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$331 (+29%) realized +$313 · open +$18

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip

Net edge+1%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%10W / 5L

Drawdown22%max

Avg bet$66per market

Trades / day7.7pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit65%portable

Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+5.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+16.3%	+5.3%	67%	67%	+16.4%
≤30d	15	+16.3%	+5.3%	67%	67%	+16.4%
≤90d	15	+16.3%	+5.3%	67%	67%	+16.4%
all	15	+16.3%	+5.3%	67%	67%	+16.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+5.3%	67%	+16.4%
10%	-4.8%	60%	+5.2%
15%	-14.0%	47%	-4.9%
20%	-22.4%	33%	-14.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 32% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +16% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +13% → late +19% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$46 vs −$34 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$116

Realized+$313

Unrealized+$18

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses10 / 5

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions2

Markets (closed)15 / 17

History coverage4d

Avg bet$66

Trades / day7.7

Drawdown22%

Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Over	60¢	86¢	$49	$70	+$21 (+42%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	Yes	61¢	57¢	$49	$46	−$3 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$25	−$23	-94%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	Jun 20	$49	+$39	+78%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5)	Jun 19	$49	−$48	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$99	+$54	+55%
Spread: United States (-1.5)	Jun 19	$49	+$68	+137%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	Jun 19	$25	−$24	-98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 19	$49	+$6	+12%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Jun 18	$49	+$82	+165%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$25	−$24	-99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$49	−$49	-99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Jun 18	$49	+$11	+22%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$149	+$53	+36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$223	+$66	+30%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$25	+$41	+165%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$109	+$42	+39%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	1¢	$2	40m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	60¢	$49	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	20¢	$25	5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	61¢	$50	5h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	SELL Brazil	94¢	$88	16h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5)	BUY Türkiye	24¢	$49	19h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	BUY Brazil	52¢	$49	21h
Spread: United States (-1.5)	SELL United States	85¢	$117	21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	96¢	$21	21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	96¢	$132	22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$99	36h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	28¢	$25	38h
Spread: United States (-1.5)	BUY United States	35¢	$49	38h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	SELL Mexico	27¢	$56	39h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	BUY Mexico	23¢	$49	41h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	BUY Switzerland	37¢	$49	2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	51¢	$25	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$49	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$202	2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	SELL Colombia	58¢	$61	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	73¢	$149	2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	BUY Colombia	46¢	$49	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	55¢	$25	3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	37¢	$25	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$99	3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	98¢	$151	3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	70¢	$109	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	67¢	$96	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$99	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.82 · official $115.82 (match) · 38 history records