Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:26:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x773c…cf18 sports 753 markets active 2h ago coverage 608d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,636 (+1%) realized +$3,572 · open +$64
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%411W / 341L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$939per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1,733est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$164
7 days−$1,992
14 days−$54
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$2,040
other 2% +$1,060
politics 1% −$470
tech 1% −$1,661
world 0% +$1,062
culture 0% +$123
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -12.4% -20.8% 53% 53% -30.2%
≤30d 75 +5.5% -4.6% 48% 47% -10.3%
≤90d 187 +2.6% -7.2% 58% 53% -2.0%
all 752 -4.1% -13.2% 55% 50% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 50% -9.3%
10% -21.5% 39% -17.9%
15% -29.1% 32% -25.9%
20% -36.1% 28% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$493 vs −$596 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

608d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized+$3,572
Unrealized+$64
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses411 / 341
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1,733
Open positions1
Markets (closed)752 / 753
History coverage608d
Avg bet$939
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 752 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 20¢ 30¢ $132 $196 +$64 (+48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $335 −$335 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $546 −$546 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $238 −$238 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $95 +$27 +29%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $273 +$149 +55%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 28 $302 −$296 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $310 −$310 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $326 −$326 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $343 +$347 +101%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $330 +$595 +180%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $483 +$1,004 +208%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $93 +$30 +32%
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky Jun 27 $98 +$25 +26%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 27 $87 +$38 +44%
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 26 $471 −$468 -99%
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm Jun 26 $311 −$311 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $317 −$317 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $299 −$299 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $98 +$25 +26%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $89 +$33 +38%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 26 $98 +$24 +24%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 26 $305 +$48 +16%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 25 $296 −$296 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 25 $308 +$592 +192%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $201 +$34 +17%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 24 $114 −$114 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 24 $310 −$310 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 24 $289 +$79 +27%
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 23 $419 +$50 +12%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 22 $926 −$926 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $284 +$397 +140%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $258 +$294 +114%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $880 +$235 +27%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 20 $298 −$298 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) Jun 20 $324 +$997 +307%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) Jun 20 $164 +$836 +510%
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) Jun 19 $366 −$366 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 19 $308 −$308 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 18 $251 +$695 +276%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 17 $291 −$291 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 17 $292 −$292 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 17 $292 −$292 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 17 $301 +$752 +250%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 17 $293 +$899 +307%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 16 $406 −$406 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 15 $402 −$402 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 14 $246 −$246 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2,503 −$432 -17%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $250 +$166 +66%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 13 $270 −$270 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Jordan 64¢ $273 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $5 3h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $233 3h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $454 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $335 4h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 37¢ $302 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $95 5h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $92 20h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $330 27h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY Philadelphia Phillies 69¢ $87 29h
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 79¢ $98 29h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 30¢ $179 29h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $1 29h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $309 29h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $93 30h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 31¢ $326 30h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $1 30h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $342 30h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $304 30h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes $3 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $2 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $97 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $89 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 80¢ $2 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 80¢ $97 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 28¢ $299 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $317 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 86¢ $305 2d
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY New York Liberty 84¢ $311 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 86¢ $296 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.95 · official $195.95 (match) · 2787 history records