Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:56:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x773c…2943 other 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$99
14 days−$92
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$93
sports 20% −$10
crypto 8% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -8.9% -17.6% 45% 34% -16.7%
≤30d 34 -1.7% -11.1% 50% 41% -15.1%
≤90d 34 -1.7% -11.1% 50% 41% -15.1%
all 34 -1.7% -11.1% 50% 41% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 41% -15.1%
10% -19.6% 26% -23.2%
15% -27.4% 18% -30.6%
20% -34.5% 15% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$229
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage28d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $179 $182 +$3 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $46 $48 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $59 −$29 -50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $35 +$5 +16%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $52 −$11 -22%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $50 −$10 -19%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $120 +$17 +14%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $26 −$1 -4%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $28 −$6 -20%
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $51 −$3 -6%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $23 +$7 +31%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $99 +$10 +10%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$18 +60%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 +$3 +29%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $101 +$8 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $20 +$7 +34%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $18 +$12 +70%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $146 −$41 -28%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $75 +$13 +17%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $57 −$11 -19%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $47 +$17 +36%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 $0 -5%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $55 −$5 -9%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $8 +$15 +197%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 +$2 +21%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 +$3 +18%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $16 −$2 -11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 +$4 +109%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $18 +$11 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $29 0m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $53 2m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 4m
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) SELL Portugal 35¢ $41 7m
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 43¢ $52 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 69¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $22 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $47 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $89 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $137 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 67¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 82¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $35 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 75¢ $25 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 77¢ $26 7h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 7h
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $48 9h
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $51 23h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $20 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $23 32h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 32h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $35 32h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 32h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $69 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $13 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 40¢ $12 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 30¢ $9 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 76¢ $69 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.49 · official $229.49 (match) · 147 history records