Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:22:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x7737…cd3e crypto 197 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$624 (+13%) realized +$722 · open −$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%97W / 92L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,490now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$400
7 days+$748
14 days+$897
30 days+$908
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$12
sports 43% +$825
crypto 13% −$219
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -23.6% -30.9% 45% 45% +26.1%
≤30d 100 -1.7% -11.0% 55% 54% +27.1%
≤90d 189 +4.6% -5.4% 51% 50% +12.1%
all 189 +4.6% -5.4% 51% 50% +12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 50% +12.1%
10% -14.4% 47% +1.3%
15% -22.7% 46% -8.5%
20% -30.3% 37% -17.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$6 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$1,490
Realized+$722
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses97 / 92
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions8
Markets (closed)189 / 197
History coverage76d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $755 $749 −$6 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $527 $531 +$4 (+1%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 45¢ 30¢ $294 $198 −$96 (-33%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? No 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jordan 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $493 +$258 +52%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $480 +$147 +30%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $473 +$281 +59%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 24 $1 +$2 +152%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $69 +$31 +46%
James Rodríguez: 1+ assists Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$26 +51%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $74 +$84 +114%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $4 +$4 +109%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $7 −$7 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 21 $70 −$69 -98%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $151 +$20 +13%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 +$1 +134%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 +$5 +123%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $199 +$146 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 05 $4 +$3 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$2 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9AM ET May 31 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 31 $1 $0 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 8AM ET May 31 $5 +$4 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +25%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $9 +$8 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 30 $2 −$1 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 54m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 57m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Jordan 58¢ $1 58m
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 44¢ $5 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 49¢ $5 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $533 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 8h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 8h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $493 24h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 100¢ $627 32h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 76¢ $480 45h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 100¢ $754 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $473 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $1 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 93¢ $3 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 36¢ $1 3d
James Rodríguez: 1+ assists BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $8 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $61 3d
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Over 0¢ $0 4d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $77 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $4 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $3 4d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $159 5d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,490.49 · official $1,490.49 (match) · 542 history records