Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:09:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
77 0x7737…be1d politics 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$406now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 88% −$4
world 11% $0
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -3.4% -12.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -3.4% -12.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 10 -3.4% -12.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 12 -2.7% -12.0% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$406
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage243d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $219 $219 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $169 $169 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 97¢ 98¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $180 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2 $0 -17%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $199 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $198 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $229 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $219 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2 $0 -16%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $169 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 26 $19 $0 +2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? Oct 24 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 55m
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 2h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 4h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 6h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 6h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 11h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 11h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 14h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 14h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 14h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 23h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 24h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 31h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 33h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 38h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 38h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 38h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 39h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 41h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 41h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 43h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 44h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 44h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 46h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 2d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $19 179d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $19 179d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $406.41 · official $406.41 (match) · 35 history records