Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:21:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

77 0x7736…877d other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$40 (+47%) realized +$40 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown46%max

Avg bet$17per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+4.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+16.0%	+4.9%	60%	60%	+30.8%
≤30d	5	+16.0%	+4.9%	60%	60%	+30.8%
≤90d	5	+16.0%	+4.9%	60%	60%	+30.8%
all	5	+16.0%	+4.9%	60%	60%	+30.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.9%	60%	+30.8%
10%	-5.1%	60%	+18.3%
15%	-14.3%	40%	+6.9%
20%	-22.7%	20%	-3.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 68% · top 2 85% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +45% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +16% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$19 vs −$9 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.16 per $1 lost it wins $3.16

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$40

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)5 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$17

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown46%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 5 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
France leading at halftime?	Jun 22	$29	+$8	+29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$20	+$10	+48%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$7	−$7	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Jun 22	$11	−$11	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Jun 22	$19	+$38	+203%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
France leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$38	1h
France leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	77¢	$29	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$30	5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$20	20h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	34¢	$7	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$55	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	BUY Up	81¢	$10	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	SELL Up	30¢	$1	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	BUY Up	17¢	$8	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$11	20h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records