Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:50:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
77 0x7736…6f6a sports 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$995 (+4%) realized +$1,002 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%77W / 110L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day38.7pace
Fees−$655est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$261now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$421
7 days−$2,982
14 days−$827
30 days+$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$553
other 16% −$285
crypto 1% +$43
world 1% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -26.0% -33.0% 33% 31% -30.9%
≤30d 187 -2.4% -11.7% 41% 39% -8.8%
≤90d 187 -2.4% -11.7% 41% 39% -8.8%
all 187 -2.4% -11.7% 41% 39% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 39% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 33% -17.5%
15% -27.9% 30% -25.5%
20% -35.0% 25% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$82 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$261
Realized+$1,002
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses77 / 110
Est. fees paid−$655
Open positions4
Markets (closed)187 / 191
History coverage14d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day38.7
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $146 $145 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $62 $61 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $97 −$95 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $61 +$7 +11%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 −$39 -38%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 +$89 +291%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $221 −$203 -92%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $36 −$6 -16%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $215 −$210 -98%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $118 −$115 -98%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
ITF Blois: Jana Otzipka vs Clara Burel Jun 16 $204 −$92 -45%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Jun 16 $41 +$46 +113%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Xinyu Gao Jun 16 $185 −$105 -57%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $102 +$192 +187%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $102 +$3 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $82 −$16 -19%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $499 −$247 -50%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $374 −$374 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $51 −$35 -68%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 16 $102 +$17 +16%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $112 −$112 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $253 +$8 +3%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $101 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$23 -23%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $163 −$96 -59%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $265 +$48 +18%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $153 −$153 -100%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $213 −$213 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $207 −$207 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $133 −$133 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 15 $204 −$204 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Manon Leonard vs Alina Charaeva Jun 15 $293 −$293 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $122 −$119 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 +$33 +32%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $102 +$23 +22%
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $82 −$55 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 58m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 19¢ $31 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 6h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $61 25h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 56¢ $68 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $36 25h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 49¢ $61 25h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 47¢ $101 27h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 13¢ $63 27h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 27h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 2¢ $19 31h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $31 31h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 22¢ $30 31h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 25¢ $36 31h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Paris Basketball 20¢ $41 31h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 7¢ $5 32h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 7¢ $10 32h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 27¢ $204 32h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 30¢ $2 32h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 36h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 2d
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Tomas Etcheverry 4¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.66 · official $260.89 (match) · 634 history records