Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:18:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x7736…fa00 other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 574d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%17W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 71% −$14
politics 19% −$14
other 6% +$6
crypto 2% +$1
sports 1% +$18
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +26.7% +14.6% 20% 20% -1.1%
≤30d 17 +7.8% -2.5% 18% 6% -8.6%
≤90d 49 +6.0% -4.1% 27% 16% -8.7%
all 58 +5.0% -5.0% 29% 14% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 14% -9.5%
10% -14.1% 12% -18.2%
15% -22.4% 10% -26.1%
20% -30.0% 10% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

574d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses17 / 41
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage574d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $14 $0 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $5 +$6 +134%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $35 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $21 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 31 $38 $0 +0%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 30 $16 $0 -0%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $20 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $195 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $13 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $92 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $88 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $84 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $94 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $181 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? May 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $92 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $87 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $88 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $85 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $92 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 30 $86 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $180 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $93 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 23 $91 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $94 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $87 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $89 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $89 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $9 +$7 +76%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $9 +$10 +104%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $15 +$4 +29%
Penguins vs. Islanders Apr 06 $29 −$29 -100%
Blues vs. Ducks Apr 06 $12 +$15 +122%
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets Apr 03 $27 +$21 +79%
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 30 $30 +$7 +22%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 27 $22 $0 +2%
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Mar 27 $17 +$22 +132%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $62 7h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 3d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 5d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 5d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 5d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 7d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $5 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $18 10d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $18 11d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 12d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 12d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 13d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 14d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 15d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 15d
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 17d
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 17d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 17d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 17d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 21d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $20 23d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $20 23d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 24d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.75 · official $82.75 (match) · 248 history records