Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:04:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7733…23f5 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 653d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$417 (-67%) realized −$418 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$44
14 days−$44
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$369
other 38% −$41
sports 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-62.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -55.1% -59.4% 31% 31% -33.3%
≤30d 13 -55.1% -59.4% 31% 31% -33.3%
≤90d 13 -55.1% -59.4% 31% 31% -33.3%
all 14 -58.3% -62.3% 29% 29% -79.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.3% 29% -79.1%
10% -65.9% 29% -81.1%
15% -69.2% 21% -82.9%
20% -72.2% 14% -84.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -81% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$46 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

653d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$418
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage653d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $83 $84 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $36 −$35 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $14 +$7 +52%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin above $60,000 on September 6? Sep 06 $370 −$369 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $84 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 28h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 28h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 28h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 28h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 30h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 30h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $17 37h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $14 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $10 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $13 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin above $60,000 on September 6? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 652d
Bitcoin above $60,000 on September 6? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 652d
Bitcoin above $60,000 on September 6? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 652d
Bitcoin above $60,000 on September 6? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 652d
Bitcoin above $60,000 on September 6? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 652d
Bitcoin above $60,000 on September 6? BUY Yes 1¢ $28 652d
Bitcoin above $60,000 on September 6? BUY Yes 1¢ $22 652d
Bitcoin above $60,000 on September 6? BUY Yes 1¢ $18 652d
Bitcoin above $60,000 on September 6? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 652d
Bitcoin above $60,000 on September 6? BUY Yes 1¢ $42 652d
Bitcoin above $60,000 on September 6? BUY Yes 2¢ $42 652d
Bitcoin above $60,000 on September 6? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 652d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.62 · official $83.62 (match) · 55 history records