Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:37:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
77 0x772e…2ccc crypto 214 markets active 0h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$168 (-0%) realized −$168 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate75%161W / 53L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$271
7 days+$271
14 days+$271
30 days+$271
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$235
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +6.7% -3.4% 63% 50% -2.5%
≤30d 52 +6.7% -3.4% 63% 50% -2.5%
≤90d 64 -2.8% -12.1% 58% 47% -10.6%
all 214 +3.6% -6.3% 75% 59% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 59% -9.5%
10% -15.2% 34% -18.2%
15% -23.4% 19% -26.1%
20% -30.9% 12% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$91 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$168
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses161 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)214 / 214
History coverage178d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 214 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $62 +$34 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $82 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $71 +$25 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $164 +$13 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $122 −$11 -9%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $313 +$31 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$71 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $93 −$70 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $134 −$72 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $83 +$51 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $61 +$15 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $72 +$37 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$36 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $79 −$7 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $62 +$39 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $143 +$72 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $124 −$70 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $114 +$64 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $105 −$49 -47%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$16 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$33 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $39 +$17 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $131 +$112 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $101 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $62 +$43 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $82 +$39 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$21 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$33 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET Jun 18 $187 −$139 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$12 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$40 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $62 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $62 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $110 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$159 +505%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$27 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $127 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$5 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $96 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $62 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $20 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $35 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $97 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $31 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1409 history records